Problem
Problem Addressed:
The study examines Oregon’s Short-Term Transitional Leave (STTL) program, aiming to understand its effects on recidivism compared to traditional sentence completions. The program, which allows inmates early release for reintegration, has expanded to reduce costs and incarceration rates.
General Impact:
STTL could influence public safety through recidivism rates while offering cost-saving benefits. It challenges assumptions about the deterrence of incarceration length and explores alternative reentry strategies.
Research Questions Answered:
- Does participation in STTL influence rates of rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration, or technical violations?
- Does the length of time granted under STTL affect recidivism outcomes?
Method and Analysis
Program Evaluated:
Oregon's STTL program, expanded in 2013 to release eligible inmates up to 90 days early (later increased to 120 days in 2017).
Data and Sample Size:
The study analyzed 23,921 individuals released between 2011 and 2017, with 5,347 participating in STTL. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was applied to create equivalent groups for comparison.
Analysis Used:
PSM and marginal means weighting were employed to compare recidivism outcomes, including rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration, and technical violations. Logistic regression models evaluated the impact of STTL participation and length on these outcomes.
Outcome
Key Findings:
- No significant differences were found between STTL and non-STTL groups in rates of rearrest, reconviction, or reincarceration.
- STTL participants showed higher rates of technical violations, particularly with longer leave durations.
- Increased violations appeared linked to heightened supervision rather than new criminal behavior.
Implications or Recommendations:
- Policy Efficiency: STTL offers substantial cost savings without increasing crime rates, supporting its continued and potentially expanded use.
- Supervision Practices: Adjustments to supervision intensity could reduce technical violations while maintaining public safety.
- Rehabilitation: Pairing STTL with targeted reentry programs addressing criminogenic needs could improve reintegration and reduce recidivism.
- Future Research: Focus on unmet needs, demographic impacts, and potential backdoor sentencing effects to refine program benefits.
This comprehensive evaluation highlights STTL's potential as a viable decarceration strategy with minimal risks to public safety.