Problem
The problem the study aimed to address:
The study investigates whether technical violations (TVs) of parole conditions act as reliable proxies for predicting new crimes, an assumption central to parole systems.
General impact on the system and/or public:
- TVs account for a significant portion of parole revocations, contributing to prison overcrowding and high costs.
- Misclassifying TVs as indicators of future crimes may undermine reintegration efforts and overburden the corrections system.
Research Questions:
- Do risk and needs assessments predict TVs with similar accuracy as they predict new crimes?
- Are TVs valid proxies for criminal behavior across male and female offenders?
Method and Analysis
Program Evaluated:
The assumption that TVs are proxies for new crimes, utilizing Washington State Department of Corrections data.
Data and Sample Size:
Data from 31,583 cases (25,641 males, 5,942 females) released between 2008 and 2011 and tracked for 24 months post-release.
Analysis Used:
Logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were applied to evaluate the predictive accuracy of a risk-need assessment scale for recidivism and TVs.
Outcome
Key Findings:
- Risk scales designed for predicting felony recidivism poorly predict TVs, particularly for nonserious and serious violations among male offenders.
- For males, absconding and habitual nonserious violations (6+) showed some predictive alignment with recidivism traits.
- For females, predictive models demonstrated similar accuracy for recidivism and TVs, but TVs occurred less frequently, complicating statistical validation.
- TVs are not reliable proxies for new crimes, particularly among male offenders, challenging foundational parole assumptions.
Implications or Recommendations:
- Policy: Reassess reliance on TVs for revocation decisions, focusing on distinctions between violation types and their actual risks to public safety.
- Practice: Tailor supervision strategies and risk assessments to account for gender-specific differences and the nuances of violation behaviors.
- Research: Develop predictive tools specific to TVs to better identify high-risk behaviors without conflating them with recidivism.
This study calls for rethinking parole supervision policies and refining risk assessments to enhance fairness, efficiency, and reintegration success while addressing systemic cost and resource concerns.