PROBLEM
The problem the study aimed to address:
Oregon’s implementation of three major drug policy reforms — Justice Reinvestment (2013), defelonization (2017), and decriminalization (2021) — significantly altered how the state handles low-level drug possession. This study aimed to empirically assess how these reforms, especially Measure 110 (decriminalization), impacted law enforcement, prosecution, courts, and public health/safety outcomes. It sought to understand whether decriminalization improved treatment access and reduced justice system involvement, or whether it resulted in unintended consequences such as weakened enforcement, inconsistent prosecution, or rising overdose deaths.
General impact on the system/public:
- Law enforcement was expected to reduce arrests and shift focus from punitive responses to deflection or referral.
- Prosecutors were expected to adjust charging practices and divert more cases.
- Courts were expected to handle fewer PCS-related cases, with possible impacts on drug court referrals and sentencing trends.
Research questions answered:
- How did PCS policy changes affect arrests, charges, convictions, and sentencing trends?
- How did law enforcement and prosecution perceive and respond to the reforms?
- Did the decriminalization of PCS under Measure 110 affect crime, overdose trends, or treatment access?
METHOD AND ANALYSIS
Program evaluated or gaps addressed:
Evaluated the impacts of three key policy shifts in Oregon related to drug possession (Justice Reinvestment Initiative, House Bill 2355, and Measure 110. Addressed gaps in evidence on how these policies influenced the justice system's capacity to manage drug-related offenses and respond to substance use trends.
Data and sample size used:
- Data included arrest data from 2008-2024 across 36 countries, STOP and LEDS data for stops/searches, DOC data for probation, local control, and prison admissions.
- Interviews and focus groups with police, prosecutors, and court staff in Oregon.
Analysis used:
- Interrupted Times Series (ITS) modeling and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) to detect trends related to each policy and evaluate county-level effects.
OUTCOME
Key findings:
- PCS arrests decreased sharply post-M110; use of E-violations rose by 2023–2024.
- Both felony and misdemeanor PCS charges declined significantly after 2017 and again post-M110. Prosecutors shifted focus to high-level offenses and expressed concern over the loss of leverage for diverting people to treatment.
- Conviction rates rose to ~65% by late 2023, while dismissals dropped. Drug court enrollments remained stable, suggesting they adapted to new referral patterns.
- Defelonization led to a dramatic and immediate drop in felony drug possession cases statewide, but the number of defendants implicated in the system remained relatively stable.
- The pandemic caused widespread disruptions across all sectors of the criminal legal system, including steep declines in arrests, prosecutions, court filings, and drug court participation; many of which began before Measure 110 took effect.
- Overdose deaths increased during the study period, but this rise was consistent with national trends tied to fentanyl and the COVID-19 pandemic rather than being clearly attributable to M110.
- Property crime temporarily increased following M110’s passage but later returned to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that property crime was weakly associated with the ballot measure, if at all. Violent crime rates remained relatively stable throughout and unassociated with any policy shift.
Implications or recommendations:
- Decriminalization needs to be paired with mandatory or incentivized treatment pathways, especially when criminal leverage is removed.
- Data integration across systems (justice, health) is necessary to evaluate reform success.
- Counties need flexibility to tailor responses but must be held accountable for service provision and engagement outcomes.
- Future policies like HB 4002 (which recriminalizes PCS) should learn from the implementation gaps of M110 and prioritize treatment linkages over punitive return.