Problem
Problem Addressed:
Oregon’s Justice Reinvestment Act (JRA), initiated through House Bill 3194, sought to reduce incarceration rates, mitigate correctional costs, and enhance public safety while addressing recidivism rates.
Impact on System and Public:
The initiative intended to redirect resources from prisons to high-incarceration communities, fostering rehabilitative programs and reducing the "revolving door" phenomenon in corrections.
Research Questions Answered:
- Has the JRA effectively reduced prison populations?
- Did it impact rates of recidivism, jail admissions, and community supervision?
Method and Analysis
Program Evaluated or Gaps Addressed:
Evaluates the statewide implementation of Oregon's JRA, focusing on its effect on prison population trends, recidivism, and community corrections.
Data and Sample Size:
A decade of monthly data (June 2008–July 2018) was analyzed using aggregated data from the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission (CJC) and the Department of Corrections (DOC), with rates calculated per 100,000 population.
Analysis Used:
- Interrupted time-series regression using ARIMA to control for autocorrelation.
- Examination of trends before and after the JRA’s implementation.
Outcome
Key Findings:
- Prison Usage: Prison growth slowed significantly, with a reduction of 333 inmates and a 5.2% drop in the incarceration rate by June 2018.
- Recidivism: Recidivism rates decreased across all metrics (rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration). For example, reconvictions decreased by 25.7%, and reincarcerations dropped by 24%.
- Felony Jail Admissions: Decreased by 18%, suggesting diversion efforts were effective.
- Community Corrections: Experienced a 10% reduction in supervised populations, likely tied to restructured diversion and reduced violations.
Implications or Recommendations:
- While the JRA demonstrated significant reductions in recidivism and felony jail admissions, further micro-level studies are recommended to explore programmatic impacts and judge-level decision-making.
- Future resource allocation should emphasize expanding successful diversion and supervision strategies.
This evaluation underscores the JRA's role in shifting correctional trends, highlighting its broader implications for criminal justice policies aimed at balancing fiscal responsibility with community safety and rehabilitation efforts.