Problem
The Problem Addressed:
Jackson County exhibits higher rates of crime, recidivism, and risk scores on the Public Safety Checklist (PSC) compared to the Oregon state average. This study aimed to investigate the underlying factors contributing to these disparities.
General Impact:
Elevated crime and recidivism rates strain the justice system and community resources. Understanding these factors can inform interventions to reduce criminal activity and improve public safety.
Research Questions:
- Are crime rates higher in Jackson County compared to the state?
- Is the caseload of Jackson County Community Justice (JCCJ) changing?
- Are recidivism rates higher in Jackson County?
- Are PSC scores and risk classifications consistently higher in Jackson County?
- Does Jackson County have a greater proportion of high-risk offenders?
- Do PSC scores predict recidivism effectively in Jackson County?
- What individual risk factors drive higher PSC scores?
- Are there demographic or criminal history differences accounting for these trends?
Method and Analysis
Program Evaluated or Gaps Addressed:
The research assessed the effectiveness of the PSC as a recidivism risk tool and explored demographic and historical crime factors unique to Jackson County.
Data and Sample Size:
- Sample size: 89,985 supervision cases (28,046 post-prison and 61,939 probationers) from 2013–2018.
- Data sources: Oregon's LEDS, Odyssey court database, and DOC records.
Analysis Used:
Statistical methods included:
- Chi-square tests for categorical differences.
- ANOVA for comparing mean PSC scores.
- AUC analysis to evaluate predictive accuracy of PSC scores.
Outcome
Key Findings:
- Crime Rates: Jackson County consistently exceeded state crime rates across personal, property, and behavioral offenses, with behavioral crimes showing the widest gap.
- Caseload Trends: JCCJ’s probation caseload increased by 45.4% (2013-2018), contrary to a statewide decline.
- Recidivism: Recidivism rates (arrest and conviction) for Jackson supervisees were significantly higher but incarceration rates were comparable or lower.
- PSC Scores: Jackson supervisees scored higher on the PSC, with nearly double the proportion classified as "high risk."
- Risk Prediction: PSC scores reliably predicted recidivism in Jackson County, supporting its validity.
- Driving Factors: Higher scores and recidivism rates were tied to factors like frequent arrests for statutory crimes, methamphetamine and heroin possession, and failure to appear.
Implications or Recommendations:
- Policy adjustments: Tailor interventions to address high-risk behaviors and crimes prevalent in Jackson County, particularly probation violations.
- Data gaps: Investigate socioeconomic and systemic influences such as enforcement practices that may inflate crime statistics.
- Resource allocation: Use PSC data to prioritize funding and rehabilitation for high-risk populations.
This analysis underscores the need for targeted strategies in Jackson County to address elevated crime and recidivism rates. Further research into systemic and community-level factors could refine these approaches.