Circumventing the Sentencing Grid: Encouraging Downward Departures in Presumptive Prison Cases

Problem

Study Focus: 

This study examines the Multnomah County Justice Reinvestment Program (MCJRP) in Oregon, part of the Justice Reinvestment Initiative (JRI), designed to reduce incarceration through community-based sanctions for presumptive prison cases.

General Impact: 

• Addresses the systemic issue of high incarceration rates despite declining prison populations.
• Targets racial equity and sentencing disparity while mitigating prison admissions.
   

Research Questions:

• Does the JRI downward departure program reduce the likelihood of prison sentences?
• Are sentencing outcomes equitable across racial and ethnic groups?
• Does participation in the program influence prison sentence length?
  
   

Method and Analysis

Program Evaluated: 

The MCJRP employs pre-adjudication risk assessments and judicial settlement conferences to identify eligible cases for downward departures from the sentencing grid.
 

Data and Sample Size: 

• Sample of 3,930 MCJRP participants.
• Comparison with 1,153 historical cases eligible for similar interventions.
   

Analysis Used:

• Quasi-experimental design with propensity score matching (PSM) to balance participants and controls.
• Logistic regressions assessed impacts of program participation and race/ethnicity on prison outcomes.
• Outcome measures included odds of receiving a prison sentence and sentence length.
   

Outcome

Key Findings:

• Program participants were 52% less likely to receive prison sentences compared to historical counterparts.
• The program's impact on prison likelihood was equitable across racial and ethnic groups.
• No significant change in the length of prison sentences for participants.
  
   

Implications/Recommendations: 

1. The JRI program demonstrated success in reducing prison admissions without exacerbating racial disparities, offering a scalable model for similar jurisdictions.
2. The lack of impact on sentence length highlights the need for further exploration of sentencing policies.
3. Continued investment in risk assessments and pre-adjudication processes is encouraged to improve equity and efficiency in sentencing.

This report provides valuable insights for criminology and criminal justice researchers interested in systemic reforms, equitable sentencing, and effective alternatives to incarceration.