Curious about Oregon’s economy? Look no further than the Office of Economic Analysis’ weekly blog, where Josh Lehner MS ’08 shares insights that are both engaging and informative, covering everything from tech talent to marijuana sales.
As a state economist, Lehner helps provide forecasts on the economy, revenue, and population to the governor, legislature, and other policymakers. He says Portland State offered him the program and flexibility he needed to further his skills and get the type of job and career he wanted—so much so that he landed his current job before graduating.
“The combination of the technical skills I learned taking the econometrics course and the capstone research project I did have been the most valuable to me,” he says. “Without them, I wouldn’t be in the position that I am.”
Portland State Magazine recently caught up with Lehner to ask about his work with the blog and the challenge of striking the right balance in tone and subject matter, especially in uncertain financial times.
What was the impetus behind starting the blog?
Our office has conducted economic research since its formation in the early 1980s. For most of that time, the research has been published in our quarterly forecast document. We realize that the forecast is a thick report that many people don’t have the time to read all the way through. The blog was just another way to publish our research and communicate in a more modern and timely way. Plus the blog is more informal. I can focus on a smaller, hopefully interesting piece of the bigger picture without trying to tie everything together.
How do you decide what to write each week?
Mostly it’s a combination of current events and questions that our advisors and policymakers ask. I also have a list of research ideas I keep based on the articles and papers I read, and conversations I have. If there isn’t anything pressing or particularly noteworthy in the most recent data, I pull from that list of ideas. The goal is to just keep trying to learn something new about Oregon’s economy.
How do you balance making the updates both informative for folks who closely follow the economy and understandable to the general public?
A big part of our office’s role is communicating with policymakers and the public. It’s something we are always trying to get better at. The biggest challenge is getting away from technical terms, acronyms, and economic jargon that can be confusing to those not used to the terms. But I find most people understand the concepts pretty easily, so the goal is to make sure you don’t lose them along the way. I also work hard to improve our charts and graphs so that they are easier to read and understand.
How do you deliver bad news about the economy without creating panic?
It’s hard. We’re trying to do that right now in terms of talking about high inflation and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Historically it’s not a good combination, but it’s also not yet time to panic. I guess the best news here is that the economy spends many more years in expansion than it does in recession. Good news is more common than bad for that reason alone.
How do you frame your messages so readers feel educated and empowered rather than just discouraged?
This is something I don’t actively try to do. I’m just really excited about data, the economy, and research in general. I think some of that excitement and enthusiasm comes across in my writing. Or at least I hope so.
Which economic trends pique your interest the most?
In economics, we tend to focus on big-picture changes in employment, income, migration, housing, and the like. Obviously those are all very important. But to me, what is most interesting is being able to really dig into the census data and explore these topics further. In particular, looking at how those issues differ across regions of the state, different racial and ethnic groups, and different age cohorts is fascinating.