Oregon Population Forecast Program (OPFP)

Beginning in 1973 with the passage of Senate Bill (SB) 100, Oregon’s growth management system has relied on population forecasts as the primary tool for determining Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) expansions, as well as for crafting planning policy. By estimating future populations based on historic and current trends, as well as assuming the likelihood of future events, population forecasts provide necessary information to help planners, public officials, private firms, and developers better understand the short and long-term implications of population growth in local areas.  

In the recent past, Oregon law required that counties prepare coordinated population forecasts according to "generally accepted" demographic methods, which yielded forecasts produced with a highly diverse set of methods. Equally important, the prohibitive cost of forecasting meant that not all communities could update their forecasts on a regular basis.  Recognizing the need to be more responsive to accounting for current population trends by preparing population forecasts on a more regular basis, and with a consistent forecast methodology for communities across the state, the Oregon House of Representatives and Senate approved legislation in 2013 assigning coordinated population forecasting to the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University (PSU).

Forecast Program Updates

Background of the Oregon Population Forecast Program

  • To view or download a more detailed description of the program, click here.

  • For the PSU Standards and the former Oregon Administrative Rules (OARs) pertaining to the program, click here (.pdf file) and here.

  • For answers to frequently asked questions (FAQs), click here.

Questions?

If you have questions for any of the project's team members, contact Deborah Loftus at 503-725-5101 or e-mail us at: askprc@pdx.edu.

Map of Forecast Regions, 2018-21
View or download a larger version of this map.

In an effort to transition to a four-year cycle of population forecasts and to balance the workload of the forecast program, the Population Research Center, in consultation with DLCD, has developed a schedule for forecasting Oregon’s counties and sub-areas. We have divided the state into four regions moving forward (see map) instead of the three regions used during the first forecast cycle. As a result, Lane County has been removed from Region 1 and will not receive an updated forecast in 2018.

Instead, PRC will include Lane County with Region 4 but forecast Lane County with Region 2 (Eastern Oregon) in 2019 on a one-time basis to meet the four-year deadline described in ORS 195.033, as the County’s former forecast was issued in 2016. In addition, PRC will update Lane County’s forecast once more in 2021 with Region 4 to reset the County’s four-year schedule. Subsequently, Lane County will receive an updated forecast every four years after 2021. 


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