Portland State University's Population Research Center regularly conducts demographic studies in support of school district planning. Studies can range from brief, simple, and inexpensive to complicated and expensive.

The typical elements of such studies are listed below:

Population and Enrollment Analyses and Projections:

Usually enrollment projections are accomplished by first projecting the overall population of the District. These population projections involve estimating the key vital rates: births, deaths, and migration. Rates for births and deaths can be extrapolated from similar populations nationally or locally. Estimates of migration must be based on local knowledge of employment and housing trends and the age, income, and other characteristics of the migrants. Regional and local plans for transportation, housing, and land use must be factored into the analysis. The projected populations then are converted into school enrollments by estimating the proportion of each age group that are enrolled in the district's schools. The level of geographical detail can range from the district as a whole down to small planning areas used in devising school attendance areas.

Typical school enrollment forecasts are for a 10 to 15 year period, usually used for planning for construction and location of schools and land and property acquisition. In addition, we also prepare 2-3 year forecasts on an annual basis for some school districts; such forecasts are used for planning staff recruitment, school assignments for staff, facilities management, and transportation planning.

Surveys and other primary data collection:

Much of the data that is utilized in enrollment projections comes from the Census and from school records. In some cases field surveys may be used for such purposes as determining the age and household composition of families moving into the area or the numbers of children likely to be found in new apartment construction.

Redistricting of attendance area boundaries:

When there is rapid growth of new housing or new schools are built, it is usually necessary to revise school boundaries. Overly frequent changes in boundaries results in children changing schools more often than is desirable. Use of a detailed data base on children, households, and housing along with trends can assist in devising boundaries that are more stable and which promote certain criteria such as diversity. Often redistricting studies are combined with population and enrollment projections.

Public participation:

Major changes in boundaries or decisions regarding the location of new schools normally involve public participation, often with a boundary and siting committee. Often the demographic consultant is closely involved with this public participation process, assisting the committee in developing options and providing information useful in making better choices.

The range of complexity and cost for such studies can be illustrated by the following examples:

• Newberg School District. Develop K-12 enrollment projections for the district. Carry out survey to determine nature of households moving to district. Prepare report and give oral presentation. Period of work about 2 months. Cost about $5,000.

• Hillsboro School District. Develop population and enrollment growth projections for district. Evaluate metropolitan Portland growth forecasts. Develop detailed demographic and student database for small planning zones. Develop enrollment projections for planning areas for use in redistricting. Provide alternative plans for elementary, middle, and high school attendance area boundaries. Participate actively in meetings with the boundary committee, the School Board, and in public hearings. Period of work about 8 months. Cost about $75,000.

During recent years, we have completed demographic studies for the following School Districts: Beaverton, Bend, Brookings Harbor, Corvallis, Forest Grove, Hillsboro, Lake Oswego, Newberg, Portland, Oregon Trail, Roseberg, Scappoose, West Linn-Wilsonville, and Willamina in Oregon; Lower Columbia College, Hockensin, Kelso, and Washougal in Washington. In several cases, school districts have requested school enrollment forecasts to be prepared in collaboration with architectural or engineering firms as part of a facility's review for asbestos, seismic upgrade, or compliance with ADA requirements. We can design our analysis and forecasts so that they integrate with such architectural and engineering reviews.

Recent Studies:

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecast 2004-2015

Addendum to PPS Enrollment Forecast 2004-2015 and Revised Forecast Tables

Enrollment Forecast (2004-2010) for Lake Oswego School District

Lake Oswego School District One-Year Enrollment Forecast Fall 2004

For information about demographic studies for educational planning, please contact:

Charles Rynerson
Population Research Center
Portland State University
Portland, OR 97201
(503) 725-5157
(503) 725-5162 FAX
rynerson@pdx.edu