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Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Timber Production and Corbon Sequestration
Friday, May 6, 2011 - 3:15pm
Portland State University
Fariborz Maseeh Department of Mathematics & Statistics
 
The Maseeh Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium Series*
presents

Natalia Hritonenko
~Department of Mathematics,
 Prairie View A&M University~
 
Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Timber Production and Carbon Sequestration
Abstract:
Adaptation and mitigation address climate change issues in various ways. Carbon Sequestration in forestry and soil is one of major mitigation techniques. An environmental-economic model of forest management is analyzed under different climate change scenarios. The model is formulated as an optimal control of a system of nonlinear partial differential equations with integral terms. The goal of considered management problem is to find optimal benefits from timber production and carbon sequestration and estimate the change in tree growth rate caused by climate changes. The objective function includes the revenue from timber production, operational expenses, and profit from carbon sequestration. The model takes into account the size structure of trees, intra-species competition, and density effects and considers changes of the parameters as consequence of climate change. The possible dynamics of climate change is taken from known global scenarios, e.g. the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and incorporated into the model. The provided qualitative analysis assists in understanding of how environmental changes impact biological processes of forest and carbon sequestration, shows the dynamics of change of carbon price and the optimal logging time under various climate change scenarios, and suggests how management of carbon sequestration and timber production can be adapted to climate changes. The model is approbated on real data on forestry in Spain.
Friday, May 6th, 2011, 3:15pm
Neuberger Hall room 454
(Refreshments served at 3:00 Neuberger Hall room 344)
 

* Sponsored by the Maseeh Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium Series Fund and the Fariborz Maseeh Department of Mathematics & Statistics, PSU. This event is free and open to the public.