The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering is pleased to announce Ghulam Hussain Dars's MS Thesis Defense: "Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Extremes over the Columbia River Basin Based on
Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Scenarios."
Date: Monday, May 20, 2013
Location: Engineering Building 202L (CEE Conference Room)
Adviser: Dr. Hamid Moradkhani
Hydro-climate extreme analysis helps understand the process of spatio-temporal variation of extreme events due to climate change, and it is an important aspect in designing hydrological structures, forecasting floods and an effective decision making in the field of water resources design and management. The study evaluates extreme precipitation events over the Columbia River Basin (CRB), the fourth largest basin in the U.S., by simulating four CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) for the historical period (1970-1999) and future period (2041-2070) under RCP85 GHG scenario.
The four CMIP5 models performed very well at simulating precipitation extremes in the winter season which was expected. The CMIP5 climate models showed heterogeneous spatial pattern of summer extreme precipitation over the CRB for the future period. It was noticed that multi-model ensemble mean outperformed compared to the individual performance of climate models for both seasons. We have found a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation events in the west of the Cascades Range, Coastal Ranges of Oregon and Washington State, the Canadian portion of the basin and over the Rocky Mountains. However, the mean precipitation is projected to decrease in both winter and summer seasons in the future period.